Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
10.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 10.5%
$2.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines winning the next French presidential election as the core condition, explicitly accounting for early elections and the standard two-round runoff system. Outcomes will initially be determined by a consensus of credible media reporting, with an official fallback to the French Ministry of the Interior if any ambiguity arises. A backstop deadline of December 31, 2027, handles potential extreme delays by resolving to Other. The rules are straightforward and align directly with the question.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Jean-Luc Mélenchon will win the next French presidential election, whether held as scheduled in 2027 or called earlier. It includes an explicit fallback resolution to Other if the outcome is delayed past 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Jean-Luc Mélenchon wins the next French presidential election, whether in the first round or a second-round runoff. The market resolves to No if any other candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Expected election timing: Expected around April 2027, but applies to the next election even if held earlier.
- Outcome cutoff deadline: — Resolves to Other if results are not known by this time.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Government (Ministry of the Interior)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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