Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
4.35¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.35%
$2.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines victory as winning the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule in 2027 or earlier. The rules explicitly account for France's two-round voting system. While initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, any ambiguity falls back directly to official election data published by the French Ministry of the Interior. A generous deadline of December 31, 2027 provides ample buffer for certification and potential legal challenges, with a standard fallback to resolve to Other if results remain unknown by that cutoff.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Raphaël Glucksmann will win the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule in 2027 or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Raphaël Glucksmann wins the next French presidential election, either in the first round or in a runoff. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the French Government (Ministry of the Interior) used if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election timeframe: The election is expected around April 2027, but the market covers the next election even if held earlier.
- Resolution cutoff deadline: — If election results are not known by this time, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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