Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.65¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.65%
$3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly define how the election operates, covering both first-round victories and potential runoff rounds, as well as early elections. Outcome determination relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clearly designated official fallback to the French Ministry of the Interior in case of ambiguity. There is a clear end-of-year deadline that triggers resolution to 'Other' if results remain undetermined by December 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bruno Retailleau will win the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule around April 2027 or earlier. It includes a specific fallback resolution to Other if results remain unknown by the end of 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Bruno Retailleau wins the next French presidential election, either in the first round or in a runoff. The market resolves to No if any other candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET for any reason. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Expected election timing: The election is currently expected to take place around this time.
- Resolution cutoff deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not known by this deadline.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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