Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
1.15¢
−0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.15%
$3.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly on the official winner of the next French presidential election, accommodating both the scheduled timeline and any snap election held earlier. Resolution relies primarily on credible media consensus, backed by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if any reporting ambiguity arises. The rules explicitly account for the two-round electoral system and include a longstop date at the end of 2027, making unexpected outcomes or procedural surprises very unlikely.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gabriel Attal will win the next French presidential election, whether held as scheduled around April 2027 or called earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Gabriel Attal wins the next French presidential election, either outright in the first round with over 50% of the vote or by winning the second-round runoff. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The winning candidate is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French Government's Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Expected election month: — The next presidential election is expected around April 2027.
- Resolution cutoff deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not known by this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with fallback to official results from the French Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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