Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$4.8M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly align with the real-world outcome of the next French presidential election, covering both the first round and any necessary runoff. While initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, there is an explicit backstop to official results published by the French Ministry of the Interior if reporting is unclear. The deadline of December 31, 2027, provides ample time for an election typically held in the spring. A participant should simply note that if election results remain unresolved past the year-end deadline, the market triggers a resolution to Other.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether François Ruffin will win the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule in 2027 or earlier. The market will resolve to Other if the outcome is not determined by the end of 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if François Ruffin wins the next French presidential election, securing victory either in the first round or in a runoff. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results published by the French Ministry of the Interior if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election timing: The election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.
- Result determination deadline: — If election results are not known by this time, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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