Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$3.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market clearly defines winning conditions based on the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule in 2027 or earlier, including any second-round runoff. Resolution primary relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with explicit recourse to official results published by the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity arises. A long backstop date of December 31, 2027 ensures ample time for official certification, resolving to Other only if results remain unknown by that deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Laurent Wauquiez wins the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule around 2027 or earlier. The market will resolve to Other if election results are not known by the end of 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Laurent Wauquiez wins the next French presidential election, whether outright in the first round or via a second-round runoff. The market resolves No if any other candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French Government (Ministry of the Interior) if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Expected election window: The next French presidential election is expected around April 2027.
- Resolution cutoff date: — If election results are not known by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Government / Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.