Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$6.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves straightforwardly on whether the named candidate wins the next French presidential election, explicitly accounting for both rounds of the two-round voting system as well as potential snap elections. Resolution is guided by a consensus of credible reporting, with an official government source (the Ministry of the Interior) specified as the tie-breaker if reporting is ambiguous. A clear backstop date of December 31, 2027 gives ample time for the expected spring 2027 election results to be finalized, resolving to Other if the outcome remains unknown.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Xavier Bertrand will win the next French presidential election, which is expected around April 2027 or could be held earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Xavier Bertrand wins the next French presidential election, whether outright in the first round or in a runoff second round. The market resolves to No if any other candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election window: The election is expected to occur around April 2027.
- Resolution cutoff: — Results must be known by this time or the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the French Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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