Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the resolution criteria and rely on a designated online tracking database, The Numbers, specifically using the final three-day weekend figures. The definitions address common box office ambiguities, clarifying that only the standard Friday through Sunday frame counts regardless of holiday extensions, and accepting the database's definition of domestic gross. Early resolution to No is permitted if another release's finalized opening surpasses this title, and an explicit alphabetical tie-breaker is established. A backup credible source is only invoked if final numbers remain unpublished by the end of January 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dune: Messiah will achieve the highest domestic 3-day opening weekend box office gross of any movie released in 2026. An unusual feature is an alphabetical tie-breaker rule if multiple movies tie for the top opening gross.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Dune: Messiah grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend (Friday through Sunday) than any other movie released in 2026 based on finalized figures. If Dune: Messiah ties with another film for the highest gross, it resolves to Yes if Dune: Messiah comes first in alphabetical order. The market resolves to No if another movie finishes with a higher finalized 3-day domestic opening weekend gross, or if another movie wins an alphabetical tie-breaker. The market may resolve to No immediately once another movie's finalized opening weekend gross surpasses Dune: Messiah. Resolution relies on The Numbers Weekend Box Office Performance table using finalized 3-day data rather than studio estimates. If no final data is available by January 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible source will be chosen.
Key dates
- Final data cutoff: — If no final data is available from the primary source by this time, another credible source will be selected.
Resolution source
The Numbers
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Community forecast
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