Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Current price
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Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how the outcome is measured and compared across all 2026 releases. Resolution relies on a specific designated source, The Numbers, and explicitly specifies using final three-day weekend figures from a designated table rather than studio estimates or extended holiday openings. The rules account for early resolution if another film objectively surpasses the title's opening weekend gross, specify an alphabetical tie-breaker, and include an end-of-January 2027 deadline for final data before seeking an alternate source.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Rules history
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Market explained
This market measures whether Avengers: Doomsday achieves the highest domestic three-day opening weekend box office gross among all 2026 movie releases, featuring an alphabetical ordering rule to break any ties.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Avengers: Doomsday achieves a higher domestic 3-day opening weekend gross than any other movie in 2026, winning ties if its title comes first alphabetically. The market resolves to No if another 2026 film surpasses its 3-day opening weekend gross, which may occur immediately once final numbers for both films are established. Comparisons are based strictly on Friday-through-Sunday 3-day figures, regardless of longer holiday opening frames. Resolution is decided using final data from The Numbers Weekend Box Office Performance table, excluding studio estimates. If final data is unavailable by January 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible source will be selected.
Key dates
- Final data deadline: — Deadline for final data to be available on The Numbers before an alternative credible source is selected.
Resolution source
The Numbers
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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