Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
1 live outcome · highest priced: The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping at <1% · first close Feb 1, 2027 · $1M total volume
About this event
This event tracks which movie will achieve the highest domestic 3-day opening weekend box office gross in 2026. Markets measure whether a specific film will outperform all other movies released during that year.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of one market per candidate movie. Because only the movie with the single highest 3-day opening weekend gross in 2026 wins (with ties resolved alphabetically), at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if the named movie grosses more domestically on its 3-day opening weekend (Friday through Sunday) than any other film in 2026, based on final data from The Numbers. It resolves to No otherwise, and may resolve to No early if another movie's finalized gross surpasses it. If there is a tie, the movie whose title comes first alphabetically wins. If final data is unavailable from the primary source by the January 31, 2027 deadline, another credible source will be selected.
Key dates
- Data availability deadline: — 11:59 PM ET deadline for final data availability before choosing an alternate credible source
Resolution source
The Numbers
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | — | — | Low | Med | |
| Avengers: Doomsday | — | — | Low | Med | |
| Dune: Messiah | — | — | Low | Med |