Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Last captured price
43.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 43.5%
$294.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the resolution criteria and rely on a dedicated metric from a named authority (The Numbers). Resolution is explicitly limited to the 3-day Friday-to-Sunday opening gross, which eliminates common disputes around extended holiday weekend totals. The market includes explicit clauses for early resolution (resolving to No if another film surpasses its finalized number) and an alphabetical tie-breaker, alongside a definite cutoff date of January 31, 2027 for finalizing data.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Spider-Man: Brand New Day achieves the highest 3-day domestic opening weekend box office gross among all movies released in 2026. A notable rule is that ties are broken by alphabetical order of the movie titles.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Spider-Man: Brand New Day grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie released in 2026 based on final figures. If its opening gross ties with another movie, the movie whose title comes first alphabetically wins. The market resolves to No if another 2026 movie achieves a higher finalized 3-day domestic opening gross. The market may resolve to No early if another film surpasses it once final figures for both are available. Resolution is determined using the Weekend Box Office Performance table on The Numbers, considering specifically Friday through Sunday 3-day figures regardless of extended openings. If final data is not available by January 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Key dates
- Final data cutoff: — If final data is not available on The Numbers by this time, another credible source will be selected.
Resolution source
The Numbers
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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