Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$78K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the source, pointing directly to the Weekend Box Office Performance table on The Numbers for 2026 releases. The criteria explicitly require final three-day Friday-through-Sunday figures rather than studio estimates or extended holiday weekend totals. Participants should note two specific procedural clauses: the market can resolve early to No as soon as any other 2026 release officially records a larger opening weekend gross, and exact ties are broken strictly by alphabetical order of movie titles. A standard fallback to another credible source applies only if final data remains unavailable by January 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" achieves the highest 3-day domestic opening weekend box office gross among all movies released in 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" achieves a higher 3-day domestic opening weekend gross than any other 2026 movie, or wins a tie via alphabetical order. The market resolves to No if another 2026 movie achieves a higher finalized opening gross, which may trigger an immediate No resolution once confirmed, or if tied with a movie that comes earlier alphabetically. Resolution relies strictly on final 3-day (Friday–Sunday) figures from The Numbers Weekend Box Office Performance table, disregarding studio estimates and 4- or 5-day holiday totals. If final data is unavailable by January 31, 2027, another credible source will be chosen.
Key dates
- Final data availability deadline: — If final figures are unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on this date, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution source
The Numbers
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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