Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Last captured price
4.3¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.3%
$835K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the evaluation time as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token launch, along with a firm long-term deadline of December 31, 2026. However, resolution depends on the most liquid price source available rather than naming a specific exchange, aggregator, or oracle. Determining total supply for the fully diluted valuation calculation and identifying which venue holds the most liquidity at the exact measurement time leaves room for interpretation if the valuation sits near the $3B threshold.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Opensea's token will have a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) above $3 billion one day after its public launch. The market has a specific definition for "1 day after launch" and a deadline for the token launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Opensea launches a publicly transferable and tradable token, and its Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) is greater than $3 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch. The market resolves No if the token's FDV is not greater than $3 billion at that time. The market also resolves No if Opensea does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — If Opensea doesn't launch a token by this date, the market resolves to No.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
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