Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$974.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution requires the named individual to win and accept the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources rather than a single specifically cited RNC document, but major-party presidential nominations are highly visible and unambiguous in practice. An explicit provision confirms that if the nominee is later replaced before election day, the initial resolution stands once the nomination was won and accepted. The terms are straightforward and align well with common expectations for political nomination markets.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether John N. Kennedy secures the 2028 Republican nomination for U.S. president. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not affect the resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if John N. Kennedy wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. A subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter this outcome. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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