Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
43.75¢
−3.45¢ · 24h
Implied probability 43.75%
$15.9M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution condition is straightforward, requiring the candidate to win and accept the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. While the resolution source references a consensus of official Republican Party sources rather than a single explicit document or authority, the formal nomination at the national convention is a well-defined public milestone with little room for conflicting official accounts. The rules also explicitly note that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether J.D. Vance will win and accept the Republican Party nomination for U.S. president in 2028. A subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if J.D. Vance wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. A replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the outcome once decided. The resolution is determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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