Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
14.55¢
+1.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 14.55%
$10.8M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market straightforwardly tracks whether Marco Rubio formally wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. Resolution relies on a consensus of official Republican Party sources, which introduces minor latitude in how consensus is determined, though party nominations produce clear official outcomes. The rules also explicitly note that if the nominee is replaced after winning the nomination prior to election day, it will not alter the outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Marco Rubio will win and accept the 2028 Republican nomination for U.S. president.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S. president. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter this resolution. The market resolves to No if Marco Rubio does not win and accept the nomination. A consensus of official Republican Party sources decides the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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