Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.45¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.45%
$14.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria track the standard political process for winning and accepting the major-party nomination. Resolution relies on a consensus of official party sources rather than a single specifically named party document or website, but the underlying outcome of a national party convention is definitive and publicly verifiable. The rules also clarify that later replacement of the nominee does not undo a positive resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tulsi Gabbard will win and accept the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S. president. A subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tulsi Gabbard wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution. The market resolves to No if she does not win and accept the nomination. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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