Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$1.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market resolves based on whether Tom Cotton secures and accepts the official 2028 Republican presidential nomination, relying on official party sources rather than media commentary. The condition requires both winning and accepting the nomination, meaning merely winning delegates without formal acceptance would not suffice. The rules clarify that subsequent candidate replacements prior to the general election will not retroactively alter the outcome once the nomination is formally accepted. Because the resolution criteria closely mirror standard convention outcomes and point directly to official party records, there is minimal room for unexpected interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tom Cotton will win and accept the Republican Party's nomination for U.S. president in 2028. A notable aspect is that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tom Cotton wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Any replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not change this outcome. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. A consensus of official Republican Party sources decides the resolution.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.