Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$1.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market straightforwardly resolves based on whether the candidate wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. The resolution source relies on a consensus of official Republican Party sources rather than a single specifically cited RNC document or web address, but the event itself is highly public and formal. An explicit clause clarifies that any post-nomination replacement before election day will not overturn a Yes resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Doug Burgum secures and accepts the Republican nomination for U.S. president in 2028. A notable condition is that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Doug Burgum wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not affect the outcome. A consensus of official Republican Party sources decides the resolution.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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