Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$881.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market resolves based on a straightforward, highly public event: whether the named candidate formally wins and accepts the Republican presidential nomination in 2028. The source relies on a consensus of official Republican Party sources rather than naming a single specific document or official, but official nomination outcomes at national party conventions are unambiguous. A standard clause clarifies that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mike Johnson wins and accepts the nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president in 2028. Notably, any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not alter the resolution outcome.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mike Johnson wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. The market resolves to No otherwise. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the market resolution. The outcome is decided by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.