Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$551.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly requires the named individual to win and accept the Republican presidential nomination to resolve positively. While the resolution source is described as a consensus of official party sources rather than a specific URL or document, the outcome of an official major party nomination is a definitive, publicly verifiable event. The rule confirming that a later replacement of the nominee does not undo the outcome aligns with the question and prevents ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tim Scott wins and accepts the 2028 Republican nomination for U.S. president. Notably, any subsequent replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not alter the market's resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Tim Scott wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided based on a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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