Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$919.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The criteria for resolution are clear and align directly with the question, requiring the named individual to win and accept the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. Resolution relies on establishing a consensus across official party sources rather than citing a specific URL or designated party official, though official declarations following a national convention vote leave minimal room for subjective dispute. The rules explicitly clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not retroactively alter the outcome once the nomination is accepted.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Candace Owens will win and accept the Republican nomination for U.S. president in 2028. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the market resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Candace Owens wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change this resolution. The market resolves to No if she does not win and accept the nomination. Resolution is decided by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.