Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.4¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.4%
$9.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly align with the question, resolving based on whether the candidate officially wins and accepts the party nomination. Resolution relies on official party sources, which are straightforward given the public and formalized nature of a national party convention. The rules also clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to the general election does not retroactively change the outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pete Hegseth will win and accept the 2028 Republican nomination for U.S. president.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Pete Hegseth wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S. president. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not affect this resolution. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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