Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$6.8M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria closely follow the plain meaning of the question, requiring the candidate to both win and accept the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. The rules note that subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the outcome. The resolution source relies on a consensus of official Republican Party sources rather than a single specified document or convention roll-call record, leaving minor latitude to identify consensus, but the formal nomination outcome is fundamentally a distinct and widely documented official event.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Marjorie Taylor Greene wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S. president.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Marjorie Taylor Greene wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S. president. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not alter this resolution. The market resolves to No if she does not win and accept the nomination. A consensus of official Republican Party sources decides the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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