Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$19M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on whether Erika Kirk officially wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. Resolution relies on a consensus of official Republican Party sources rather than a single specified document or chairperson declaration, but the outcome of a major party convention nomination is a prominent and well-documented public event with minimal ambiguity. The rules also explicitly note that any subsequent nominee replacement occurring before election day will not affect the outcome once the nomination has been won and accepted.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Erika Kirk will win and accept the 2028 Republican nomination for U.S. president.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Erika Kirk wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change this resolution. The market resolves to No if she does not win and accept the nomination. A consensus of official Republican Party sources decides the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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