Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.35¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$19.8M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market follows standard nomination mechanics, resolving based on whether the candidate officially wins and accepts the Republican nomination at the 2028 convention. The resolution relies on a consensus of official party sources rather than a single named document, which leaves minor room for interpretation on timing, but official party results are typically unambiguous. A specific clause notes that any post-convention replacement prior to election day will not alter the outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Rand Paul wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. A subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the market's outcome.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Rand Paul wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S. president. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. The outcome is decided based on a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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