Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$33M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution criteria closely match the plain reading of the question. Winning and accepting the official party nomination is a formal, highly publicized event with official convention records. The rules specify relying on a consensus of official party sources rather than naming a single designated document or URL, but because official party nominations produce unambiguous formal outcomes, decider discretion remains limited. The clause clarifying that subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the resolution provides clear guidance for unusual edge cases.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tom Brady will win and accept the 2028 Republican Party nomination for President of the United States.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if Tom Brady wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S. president. This market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution. The market is decided by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.