Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
1.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.1%
$8.8M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are straightforward, requiring the named individual to both win and accept the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. Resolution relies on a consensus of official party sources rather than a single named document, but party nominations are formal events with clear official records. An explicit rule confirms that any subsequent nominee replacement occurring prior to election day will not invalidate an initial resolution if the nomination was formally accepted.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ivanka Trump will win and accept the Republican Party nomination for U.S. president in 2028.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ivanka Trump wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the resolution. The market resolves to No if she does not win and accept the nomination. A consensus of official Republican Party sources decides the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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