Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
3.05¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.05%
$13.9M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria directly match the core question: the named individual must officially win and accept the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. The resolution source relies on a consensus of official Republican Party sources rather than naming a single document or specific convention roll-call record, which introduces a minor degree of discretion, but the formal nomination outcome is an unambiguous public event. The rules also explicitly note that subsequent nominee replacements prior to the general election will not alter the convention outcome resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Tucker Carlson wins and accepts the 2028 Republican nomination for U.S. president.
How it resolves
The market will resolve to Yes if Tucker Carlson wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. The market will resolve to No otherwise. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not alter the market's resolution. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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