Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$43.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The outcome depends directly on the named individual winning and accepting the official nomination at the convention, with an explicit rule that any later replacement before election day will not alter the result. While resolution references a consensus of official party sources rather than a single specific registry or URL, official party nomination outcomes are clear-cut and leave virtually no room for subjective dispute.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mike Pence wins and accepts the 2028 Republican nomination for U.S. president. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the market's outcome.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mike Pence wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. A replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution. Resolution is determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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