Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$37.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market straightforwardly resolves based on whether Kristi Noem wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. Resolution relies on a consensus of official Republican Party sources, which requires slight interpretation to identify the relevant party announcements, but official party decisions of this scale are unambiguous. A specific clause clarifies that subsequent replacements of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kristi Noem wins and accepts the 2028 Republican nomination for U.S. president. Resolution is unaffected if the nominee is subsequently replaced before election day.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Kristi Noem wins and accepts the Republican Party nomination for U.S. president in 2028. Any replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the resolution. The market resolves to No if she does not win and accept the nomination. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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