Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$38.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has straightforward criteria requiring the named individual to win and accept the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. Resolution relies on a consensus of official party sources, which introduces minor discretion in verifying convention outcomes across official channels, but the underlying event is clear and publicly documented. An explicit rule confirms that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not retroactively alter the outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether John Thune secures and accepts the Republican nomination for U.S. president in 2028. Subsequent replacements of the nominee before election day do not alter the outcome.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if John Thune wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. A subsequent replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution. A consensus of official Republican Party sources determines the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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