Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$20.6M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution condition is straightforward: the market resolves based on whether the candidate wins and accepts the party's presidential nomination. Rather than naming a single primary document or official URL, the rules rely on a consensus of official Republican Party sources, though presidential nominations are public and formalized events with minimal ambiguity. Additionally, the rules explicitly note that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the initial resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Matt Gaetz wins and accepts the Republican nomination for U.S. president in 2028.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Matt Gaetz wins and accepts the 2028 Republican nomination for U.S. president. A subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not alter the resolution. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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