Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$31.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly align with the question: the named individual must formally win and accept the Republican presidential nomination for 2028. Resolution relies on a consensus of official party sources rather than a single direct link or specific convention record, but official party communications regarding a presidential nomination are public and unambiguous. A standard clause also clarifies that any post-convention replacement of the nominee before election day does not reverse an earlier resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Elon Musk will win and accept the Republican Party nomination for President of the United States in the 2028 election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. A replacement of the Republican nominee prior to election day will not alter the market resolution. Resolution will be decided based on a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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