Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
2.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.35%
$19.8M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market straightforwardly resolves based on whether Ted Cruz officially secures and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. The resolution source relies on a consensus of official party sources rather than naming a single document or designated party committee, but major political party nominations are unambiguous public events with clear official records. An explicit rule specifies that if the nominee is replaced after winning and accepting the nomination, earlier resolution remains unaffected, preventing ambiguity around late-campaign developments.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ted Cruz wins and accepts the 2028 Republican nomination for U.S. president. Notably, any replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the market's resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ted Cruz wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change this resolution. The market resolves to No if Ted Cruz does not win and accept the nomination. The deciding source is a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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