Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.35¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.35%
$20.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are straightforward, requiring the candidate to formally win and accept the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. Resolution is based on a consensus of official Republican Party sources rather than a single specified document or URL, introducing minor discretion in aggregating official statements. The rules also clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not retroactively alter the resolution once the nomination has been won and accepted.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Josh Hawley wins and accepts the Republican Party nomination for U.S. president in 2028. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the market's outcome.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Josh Hawley wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Any subsequent replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution. The market resolves to No if Josh Hawley does not win and accept the nomination. A consensus of official Republican Party sources decides the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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