Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$28.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market follows straightforward criteria: resolution depends on whether the named candidate formally wins and accepts the party nomination. Resolution relies on a consensus of official party sources rather than a single specific URL or entity, but party nomination outcomes are official and unambiguous in practice. The rules explicitly note that any later replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the outcome, preventing ambiguity if post-convention changes occur.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Elise Stefanik will win and accept the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Elise Stefanik wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter this resolution. The market resolves to No if she does not win and accept the nomination. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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