Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.15¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$44.6M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the named candidate winning and formally accepting the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. While the resolution basis relies on a consensus among official Republican Party sources rather than citing a single official document or URL, presidential nominations at national party conventions are highly public, definitive events with little room for dispute. Additionally, the rules clarify that any post-nomination replacement ahead of election day will not invalidate an earlier valid nomination.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Byron Donalds wins and accepts the 2028 Republican nomination for U.S. president. Notably, any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the market's resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Byron Donalds wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S. president. Any later replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change this resolution. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Resolution is decided based on a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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