Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.55¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.55%
$18M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The resolution criteria closely mirror the core question: the market resolves based on whether Brian Kemp secures and formally accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. The resolution source relies on a consensus across official Republican Party announcements rather than naming a single primary document, though major party nominations are publicly certified and unambiguous. The rules explicitly note that if the nominee is replaced at any point prior to election day after winning and accepting the nomination, the resolution remains unaffected.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Brian Kemp wins and accepts the 2028 Republican nomination for U.S. president. A subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the market resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Brian Kemp wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S. president. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not affect this resolution. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.