Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.3¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.3%
$16.9M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination according to official party sources. The criteria are straightforward and match standard political nomination outcomes. An explicit clause clarifies that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the outcome once the nomination is secured.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will win and accept the 2028 Republican nomination for U.S. president. A notable rule is that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the outcome.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S. president. The market resolves to No if he does not win and accept the nomination. Any subsequent replacement of the Republican nominee prior to election day does not change the resolution. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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