Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$21.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves based on whether the candidate wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination according to official party sources. The outcome is straightforward and tracks the standard national convention process. The rules clarify that any post-convention replacement of the nominee before election day will not retroactively change the resolution. While the rules reference a consensus of official party sources rather than specifying a single exact convention roll-call document, official party confirmation of the accepted nominee is unambiguous and leaves little room for dispute.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Greg Abbott wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. If the nominee is later replaced before election day, the resolution is unaffected.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Greg Abbott wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S. president. Any replacement of the nominee before election day does not change this resolution. The market resolves to No under any other circumstance. A consensus of official Republican Party sources determines the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.