Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$10.5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria closely align with the core question, requiring the candidate to win and formally accept the Republican presidential nomination in 2028. Resolution relies on a consensus of official party sources rather than a single named document or official, but official Republican National Convention records provide clear outcomes. A specific clause clarifies that post-nomination replacement before the general election does not alter the result, matching standard expectations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Nikki Haley will win and accept the Republican Party nomination for U.S. president for the 2028 election cycle.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Nikki Haley wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for U.S. president. A subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not change this resolution. The market resolves to No if she does not win and accept the nomination. A consensus of official Republican Party sources decides the resolution.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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