Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Current price
1.65¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.65%
$9.8M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly resolves to Yes if Donald Trump Jr. wins and accepts the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, and No otherwise. It explicitly clarifies that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not change the result once nominated. While resolution relies on a consensus of official Republican Party sources rather than citing a single specific party document or official roll call vote, the outcome of a major party presidential nomination is an unambiguous, formal event that leaves minimal room for disagreement.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump Jr. wins and accepts the Republican Party nomination for U.S. president in 2028. Any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day does not alter the resolution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump Jr. wins and accepts the 2028 Republican nomination for U.S. president. Any replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not change this outcome. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided by a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Republican Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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