Will Spain win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?
Current price
31.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 31.5%
$25.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the official winner of the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League using UEFA official information as the primary source. Early resolution to No occurs as soon as the team is mathematically eliminated. A clear hard deadline of June 13, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET is established, resolving the market to Other if the competition is cancelled, postponed past that date, or fails to produce a declared winner.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League is cancelled, postponed after June 13, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Spain will win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League tournament. It includes a specific resolution fallback to "Other" if the tournament is postponed past a June 2027 cutoff.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Spain wins the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League. The market resolves to No if it becomes impossible for Spain to win per UEFA rules, such as through elimination. The market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed past June 13, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared within that timeframe. Official information from UEFA serves as the primary resolution source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Tournament completion cutoff: — If no winner is declared by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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