Will Italy win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?
Current price
1.95¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.95%
$17.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define that the outcome depends on the official winner of the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League, primarily verified through official UEFA announcements. The rules explicitly provide for early resolution to No if a team is mathematically eliminated, and set a specific cutoff date of June 13, 2027, resolving to Other if the tournament is postponed beyond that point or cancelled without a winner. While secondary consensus reporting is allowed if necessary, the primary reliance on the governing body makes the criteria straightforward and unambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League is cancelled, postponed after June 13, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Italy will win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League. It includes an early resolution condition if Italy is eliminated before the tournament concludes.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Italy wins the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League. The market resolves to No if it becomes impossible for Italy to win the tournament according to UEFA rules, such as through elimination. The market resolves to Other if the tournament is cancelled, postponed after June 13, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or if no winner is declared by that time. The primary resolution source is official information from UEFA, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Tournament must declare a winner by 11:59 PM ET to avoid resolving to Other
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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