Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?
Current price
25.5¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 25.5%
$30K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on official announcements from both governments or a consensus of credible reporting to confirm that an agreement was mutually reached. Determining whether a complex diplomatic text constitutes a full general suspension of direct military engagement versus a localized pause, partial restriction, or framework for future talks requires subjective judgment if the parties do not use standard terminology. Additionally, no single official body or document registry is designated to make the final determination, so resolution depends on evaluating media reporting across multiple outlets. Notably, the agreement only needs to be reached before the deadline; its effective implementation date can occur later.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a mutually agreed general ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027. The agreement qualifies as long as it is reached before the deadline, even if it takes effect afterward.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia and Ukraine reach a mutually agreed general ceasefire agreement by 11:59 PM ET on February 28, 2027. Qualifying deals include peace treaties, truces, or humanitarian pauses that explicitly commit to suspending direct military engagement on a specified date. Informal understandings, backchannel communications, unilateral pauses, and agreements limited to specific locations or target categories do not qualify. The market resolves to Yes even if the ceasefire takes effect after the deadline, provided the agreement is officially reached before it. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is decided using official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Ceasefire agreement deadline: — Market cutoff time at 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
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