Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Current price
13.5¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 13.5%
$2.9M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market establishes detailed criteria for what constitutes a qualifying ceasefire, requiring an explicit, dated bilateral commitment for a general cessation of fighting rather than localized truces, unilateral pauses, or informal understandings. It also clarifies that an agreement signed before the deadline qualifies even if it takes effect later. The primary risk stems from the lack of a single designated authoritative source, leaving resolution to official announcements from both governments or a consensus of credible reporting. If a negotiated framework is partially implemented, conditionally structured, or disputed by either party, determining whether it qualifies as a full ceasefire agreement will require subjective judgement.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a mutually agreed ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026. A notable aspect is that the market resolves positively if an official agreement is reached before the deadline, even if the pause itself takes effect at a later date.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if Russia and Ukraine officially reach a mutually agreed ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying agreements include broad peace deals, truces, or humanitarian pauses that establish a general pause in fighting with an explicit, dated commitment to suspend direct military engagement, even if the pause officially takes effect after the deadline. Agreements limited to specific locations, restricted target categories, future negotiations, informal understandings, or unilateral pauses do not qualify. This market resolves to No if no qualifying agreement is reached by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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