Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?
Current price
37.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 37.5%
$5.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on official announcements from both governments or a consensus of credible reporting, leaving room for interpretation if the warring parties issue conflicting narratives about what was agreed. The rules carefully define qualifying agreements by requiring an explicit, dated commitment to a general pause across the entire conflict, excluding local truces, target-specific limits, backchannel talks, and unilateral pauses. Importantly, the agreement only needs to be finalized before the deadline; it does not need to take effect before the deadline to count.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a mutual ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027. Notably, the agreement qualifies even if its effective start date is scheduled after the market deadline, provided the agreement itself is reached before the deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a general ceasefire agreement is mutually agreed upon by Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying agreements include peace deals, truces, or humanitarian pauses that explicitly commit to suspending direct military engagement on a specified date across the entire conflict, even if the pause takes effect after the deadline. Agreements limited to specific locations or targets, agreements for future talks without a dated halt to fighting, informal understandings, backchannel communications, and unilateral pauses do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying agreement is reached by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official announcements from the governments of Russia and Ukraine or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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