Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?
Current price
19.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 19.5%
$101.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on official announcements from both governments or a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves room for interpretation if negotiations produce ambiguous joint statements or disputed terms. The rules clearly state that the agreement must represent a general pause across the conflict rather than localized or sector-specific pauses, and informal backchannel agreements or unilateral pauses will not qualify. Additionally, if a qualifying agreement is officially reached before the deadline, the market resolves positively even if the actual cessation of hostilities takes effect on a date after January 31, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a mutual ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027. It resolves based on reaching the agreement before the deadline, even if the ceasefire's effective start date is scheduled for after the deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine is officially reached by January 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying agreements include a broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause, provided it includes an explicit, dated commitment for a mutually agreed general suspension of direct military engagement. Informal understandings, backchannel communications, unilateral pauses, limited agreements restricting only specific targets or locations, and agreements merely outlining future negotiations without a dated commitment to stop fighting do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying agreement is reached by the deadline. Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting will decide the outcome.
Key dates
- End date: — The deadline by which a qualifying agreement must be officially reached
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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