Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027?
Current price
51¢
−1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 51%
$3.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on official announcements from both governments or a consensus of credible reporting, leaving room for interpretation if statements conflict or reporting is mixed. To qualify, an agreement must represent a general pause in direct military engagement rather than a localized truce, unilateral pause, or target-specific restriction. An agreement finalized before the deadline will resolve the market positively even if its effective start date falls after the deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a general ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027. It qualifies even if the ceasefire takes effect after the deadline, provided the agreement is officially reached beforehand.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia and Ukraine reach an officially announced or credibly reported agreement for a mutually agreed general suspension of direct military engagement by the deadline. Broader peace deals or truces qualify if they contain an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting across the general conflict. The market will resolve to Yes even if the agreed ceasefire takes effect after the deadline date. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying agreement is reached by the deadline. Agreemeents covering only specific locations or targets, informal understandings, backchannel communications, de-escalations without an announced agreement, and unilateral pauses do not qualify. Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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